بواسطة: Thaer

  • الباوند ينخفض إثر تعّمق المخاوف حول خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي، لكن احتمال التمديد الطويل يقدم بصيص أمل
  • توقعات خفض الفيدرالي للفائدة تدعم الأصول ذات المخاطر المرتفعة، وتضغط على الدولار
  • النفط الخام يواصل الارتفاع

رئيس مجلس النواب البريطاني يستبعد “التصويت الثالث” – التمديد الطويل يلوح في الأفق

احتلت السياسة البريطانية عناوين الصحف يوم الاثنين بعد أن استبعد رئيس مجلس العموم، جون بيركو، السماح للحكومة بإحالة اتفاق خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي إلى البرلمان للمرة الثالثة، إلا إذا تم تغيير مضمونه “بشكل جوهري”. من المحتمل أن يكون هذا التحريف مؤثرًا على إدارة رئيسة الوزراء ماي، حيث أشار المسؤولون الحكوميون لاحقًا إلى أنهم لم يتم تحذيرهم من هذا الاستبعاد. انخفض الجنيه، الذي كان قد سبق أن كان تحت الضغط منذ قبيل ظهر أمس، أكثر نتيجة هذا التصريح ولكنه تمكن من استرداد بعض خسائره قبل الاغلاق.

فماذا سيحصل للبريكزيت والجنيه الاسترليني؟ التأخير أصبح الآن أمرًا لا مفر منه، لذا فإن السؤال الحقيقي الآن هو ما مدى طول هذا التمديد؟ وفي هذا الصدد، فإن حقيقة أن الحكومة البريطانية لن تتمكن على الأرجح من طرح اتفاقها لتصويت آخر في الوقت الحالي تقلل من احتمال طلب رئيسة الوزراء تمديد فترة قصيرة، فقد قالت ماي أنها ستوافق على طلب تمديد قصير الأجل إذا وافق النواب على اتفاقها. في حين أن تمديد طويل من شأنه أن يبقي حالة عدم اليقين مرتفعة ويضر النمو بسبب تعليق الاستثمار، الّا أنه قد يعني أيضاً أن المملكة المتحدة ستخرج من الاتحاد الأوروبي بطريقة أكثر ليونةً، أو أنها قد تشهد إجراء استفتاء آخر قبل الخروج. وبالتالي، في هذه المرحلة، يبدو أن التمديد الطويل هو السيناريو الأكثر إيجابيةً للجنيه.

اليوم، سيتمّ نشر بيانات التوظيف من المملكة المتحدة، على الرغم من أن السياسة ستبقى المحفز الرئيسي لتحركات الجنيه في الوقت الحالي.

 

شهية المخاطرة تهيمن بظل غياب الأخبار

في الأسواق عامةً، بقيت الرغبة في المخاطرة مرتفعة، حيث أغلقت أسواق الأسهم الأمريكية تداولات الأمس مرتفعة بشكل متواضع، مرة أخرى دون أي أخبار مادية لدفع حركة الأسعار. ربما تتحسن العواطف، بدعم من الزيادة البطيئة في توقعات خفض الفدرالي للفائدة التي كانت قد بدأت تنتشر مؤخرًا. في حين كانت الأسواق تسعر امكانية بقاء المركزي الأمريكي متريثاً هذا العام قبل بضعة أيام، بدأت الآن تسعّر وبنسبة 30٪ امكانيةً لخفض المعدلات بمقدار ربع نقطة بحلول ديسمبر، وفقاً للعقود الآجلة.

في سوق العملات الأجنبية، قد يكون هذا أيضًا هو السبب الرئيسي وراء ضعف أداء الدولار. يبدو أن المتداولين يستعدون لبيان أكثر حذراً للبنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي غدًا، وربما يتوقعون من اللجنة أن تراجع توقعاتها لمعدلات الفائدة إلى حد عدم الإشارة إلى ماصلة الرفع، وبالتالي يقلصون تعرضهم للدولار. ومع ذلك، كان المسؤولون المؤثرون مثل بيل دودلي، الذي غادر الاحتياطي الفيدرالي في نيويورك مؤخرًا، صريحًا في الإشارة إلى أنه من الممكن رفع الفائدة مرة أخرى في عام 2019. هذا يعني أن الاحتياطي الفيدرالي قد يختار الإبقاء على بعض الخيارات والحفاظ على امكانية الرفع واردة، في إشارة يمكن أن تأتي بمثابة “استيقاظ فظ” للأسواق بالنظر إلى توقعات الحذر الحالية.

 

النفط الخام يواصل الارتفاع ببطئ

واصلت أسعار النفط مسيرتها الصاعدة يوم أمس، حيث سجل خام غرب تكساس الوسيط مستويات لم يشهدها منذ منتصف شهر نوفمبر، واقترب جداً من اختبار مستوى 60$. يبدو أن الارتفاع الأخير كان مدعومًا من بعض الإشارات من المملكة العربية السعودية بأن امتثال أوبك لخفض إنتاجها سيتجاوز 100٪ في الأشهر المقبلة، كما أن شهية المخاطرة في الأسواق ساعدت أيضًا.

في الصورة الأكبر إلى حد ما، كانت المراجعات الهبوطية الأخيرة في توقعات تقييم ادارة معلومات الطاقة الأمريكي عاملاً هائلاً وراء الاتجاه الصعودي الأخير. للأسف، في سياق تباطؤ النمو العالمي، من المشكوك فيه بشكل متزايد إلى أي مدى يمكن أن يستمر هذا الارتفاع، ما لم يتغير شيء جذري على جانب العرض من المعادلة.

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